One CEO’s Blunder Is Another Investor’s Opportunity… with the help of S&P Global.

Narrative Update and Technical Check on Nvidia

Barring headline risk, I don’t see anything from now until Nvidia’s earnings that could disrupt the current melt-up. Let’s talk about two names I am watching, then pivot to a small discussion on Nvidia.

Despite an amazing fundamental showing at their quarterly report, Steve Huffman — their CEO — completely fumbled the bag on the earnings call when asked about their data licensing agreements: selling access to their content to train LLMs.

He basically said, “We’re letting them come to us.”

It came off as though the company were winging the most exciting — and potentially highest-margin — aspect of the business.

Here’s what he should’ve said: “We know what we have. People are coming to us, and we’re engaging with multiple buyers looking to capitalize on this exciting, high-margin aspect of our business.”

Thankfully, S&P Global decided to save this company by adding it to the S&P 500 — hence the recovery last week.

I alerted Weekender subs that I entered the trade on Friday’s close. However, I did tell them that many traders would like to see how the stock acts today (Monday) before allocating.

In short, if this stock can maintain the 50d SMA, it will attract more buyers into the stock. Bulls showed up around that level for months. Closing above $180, the level the stock gapped down from post-earnings, would be ideal. This would indicate the supply of sellers who bought the earnings — and then immediately saw 20 cents of each dollar invested eviscerated — is done in the short-term. Between the 50d SMA buyers and no more post-earnings bags holder, supply and demand dictate this should run.

I am keeping a tight leash on this. $174 was Friday’s pre-market low. It ended up being support during Friday’s session, pretty much to the penny. Violate that level, and you need to start looking for the exit. Of course, you could also use a weekly close below the 50d SMA.

If the uptrend continues, the next point of resistance comes between $194-196 via a downtrend line made by two lower-highs. As a trader, this is where I would cut bait.

Where a quick trade ends, an investment could begin. Above that downtrend line, RDDT is officially back in a durable uptrend. Price would indicate the prior quarter has been — if not forgiven — forgotten.

However, a more conservative approach would advocate that you wait for a higher-high above $208.05 before asserting what I did in the paragraph before.

Whether anyone knows it yet or not, two new moves on the board have made it checkmate for Nvidia for the next 18-36 months in the AI-Factory (data center) market.